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JUNE 6,  2018

SHORT TAKES ON THE DRIFTING WRECKAGE – AT 11:57 P.M. ET: 

HE'S OFF TO SEE THE REAL WIZARD – FROM FOX:   Jerry Maren, born Gerard Marenghi, the last living munchkin from the “Wizard of Oz” has died, his niece told Fox News.  Stacy Michelle Barrington confirmed his death to Fox News, saying he died more than a month ago but the family decided to hold off on sharing the news with the media. She heard of her uncle's passing through an aunt and cousin.  “I wish I had grown up with him and had spent more time and being around him growing up," she told us. "I’m grateful to have had such important people in my family. Uncle Jerry would want the legacy of the 'Wizard of Oz' to continue.”  The 98-year-old actor died at a nursing care facility in San Diego, Calif.  First full-length movie we showed to our kids.  "The Wizard of Oz" reached far more kids on television than it ever did in its original release. 

THIS IS BRITAIN? – FROM THE DAILY MAIL:   Britain is in the grip of a violent crime wave as thugs run riot on mopeds and motorbikes.  Shocking figures released yesterday show the armed thieves are striking more than 60 times every day.  In a chilling illustration of the crisis, a young woman was fighting for her life last night after her mobile was snatched by moped-riding thieves. And a motorcycle gang targeted yet another luxury store in London yesterday.  Campaigners and politicians warned the attacks were matched by disturbing rises in stabbings, drug crime and gang violence.  London now has a higher murder rate than New York, with more than 70 killings so far this year. Knife crime has also led to the deaths of a 17-year-old boy in Ipswich and of 15-year-olds in Sheffield and Wolverhampton.   You know the script.  The next phase will call for a deep study of the "root cause," and it will quickly be decided that the root cause is British racism, not the actions of the perpetrators.  And then there will be social programs.  And only when the British Rudy Giuliani arises will there be any progress.

THE NEWS IS KILLING US – FROM PEW RESEARCH:  If you feel like there is too much news and you can’t keep up, you are not alone. A sizable portion of Americans are feeling overwhelmed by the amount of news there is, though the sentiment is more common on the right side of the political spectrum, according to a Pew Research Center survey conducted from Feb. 22 to March 4, 2018.  Almost seven-in-ten Americans (68%) feel worn out by the amount of news there is these days, compared with only three-in-ten who say they like the amount of news they get. The portion expressing feelings of information overload is in line with how Americans felt during the 2016 presidential election, when a majority expressed feelings of exhaustion from election coverage.  In the immortal words of Bill Clinton, I feel their pain.  And sometimes I share it.  There is too much programming labeled as news, and not enough actual news or thoughtful analysis of the news.  And we take every story too seriously.   One of my mentors, Lester Markel, once described journalism as the "froth estate," and I'd have to echo those sentiments.

June 6, 2018       Permalink

A MEMORY AND A WARNING – AT 11:30 P.M. ET:  Today we mark D-Day, the Sixth of June, 1944 – the day when Allied troops stormed the beaches of Normandy to defeat Hitler and Nazism in the heartland of Europe.

As we remember D-Day we must inevitably recall that one of the factors that brought American boys to those bloody beaches was our lack of preparedness for war, a shortcoming that encouraged Germany and Japan to plunge humanity into World War II. 

Because we must always be on guard against weakness, we insistently must be troubled by this story, which surfaced today.  Blame it on the laxness of the Obama administration if we wish, but, whatever the cause, the effect must be reversed.  From the Washington Times: 

The Navy has identified systemic deficiencies in seamanship skills with many of its junior officers, according to an internal review obtained Wednesday by the Washington Times.

The study comes on the heels of two fatal Naval collisions that claimed the lives of 17 sailors last year — incidents that put the Navy in the spotlight and spurred the review.

In the internal message, written by Vice Adm. Richard Brown, commander of Naval Surface Force Pacific, the Navy identified “concerns” with 137 of 164 junior officers randomly tested. Of the 164 first-tour officers subjected to “competency checks,” only 27 passed with “no concerns.”

There were “some concerns” with another 108, while the remaining 29 had “significant concerns” with their seamanship skills.

“So out of 164 what we ended up seeing was kind of what we expected: We got a bell curve distribution. We had 27 who were on top, we had 108 who were in the middle and we had 29 who were kind of at the lower end,” Mr. Brown told Defense News, which first reported the internal survey. “We want to make sure the changes we are making are actually having an impact in the fleet and if we are increasing the level of experience and performance … We want to move that bell curve to the right.”

Specifically, the review found issues with officers’ operation of radar and their ability to apply Naval “rules of the road,” especially during times of low visibility.

COMMENT:   How does something like this happen?  What is wrong with training in our modern Navy?  Why was this not noticed before the two tragic collisions? 

And how far does this lack of competence extend, both within the Navy and within the other services?

We must call on Congress to mount a major investigation, demand accountability, and correct what needs to be corrected.  We must not repeat the mistakes of the past. 

If I were a Chinese admiral reading this story, I'd be awfully encouraged.

June 6, 2018       Permalink

ON THE OTHER HAND... – AT 10:25 A.M. ET:  To show the danger of overconfidence, please note that, according to Rasmussen, the Dems have retaken a small lead in the generic ballot.  From Rasmussen: 

Democrats have regained a slight lead on this week’s Rasmussen Reports Generic Congressional Ballot.

The latest telephone and online survey finds that 45% of Likely U.S. Voters would choose the Democratic candidate if the elections for Congress were held today. Forty-one percent (41%) would opt for the Republican. Four percent (4%) prefer some other candidate, and 11% are undecided. (To see survey question wording, click here.)

For the last two weeks, the ballot was at the closest it had been all year: Democrats 43%, Republicans 42%.

COMMENT:   That still doesn't provide much comfort for the Dems, who should be much further ahead, and were leading in double digits only a few months ago.  But I'd rather we be ahead than behind, even by a few points.  There is work to be done.

June 6, 2018       Permalink

THE CALIFORNIA RESULT – AT 9:52 .M. ET:  Not quite what Nancy's script anticipated.  From Fox: 

Neither party managed to land any knockout blows in California Tuesday as voters went to the polls there and in seven other states to pick candidates who will face off in the Nov. 6 midterm elections, when control of the U.S. House and Senate will be up for grabs.

The fate of President Trump’s legislative priorities will hang in the balance in November. Right now Republicans control both the House and Senate, but a swing of just 23 seats would give Democrats a House majority. The GOP holds a narrow majority of 51 seats in the Senate, with Democrats controlling 47 seats and independents who caucus with Democrats holding two seats.

California, home to the nation’s largest congressional delegation with 39 Democrats and 14 Republicans, has a so-called “jungle primary.” All candidates initially competed on a single ballot Tuesday. The two who come out on top go on to the general election, regardless of political party.

This makes it possible for two Democrats or two Republicans to face each other in November.
The Democrats had hoped the jungle primary might give them a leg up on their campaign to win back control of the U.S. House of Representatives by capturing at least a few of the 14 seats the GOP currently holds in California – half of which Hillary Clinton carried in the 2016 presidential contest.

Going into Tuesday is looked like there might be a few seats – notably the Anaheim-area seat of retiring Republican Ed Royce – where the Republicans might be shut out of the general election.

That appears not to have happened – not in the Royce seat, not in the San Diego-area seat of retiring GOP Rep. Darrell Issa, and not in Huntington Beach where Republican Dana Rohrabacher, a former speechwriter for President Reagan seeking a 16th term, easily made it into the next round.

The failure to achieve what some were calling a “big, blue shutout” also didn’t extend to the gubernatorial contest. Democratic Lt. Gov. Gavin Newsom easily advanced to the second round of balloting as did Republican businessman John Cox, who had the endorsement of President Trump.

Former Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa – whom some hoped might make it into the runoff in place of Cox, setting up an all-Democratic general election contest that could have had a depressive affect on GOP turnout statewide – drew only about half as much support as Cox and finished a distant third.

COMMENT:  There are no guarantees for November, but, nationally, the Democrats are just not doing as well as they'd expected.  Most analysts now see the Senate as almost impossible for them to win, because so many marginal Democratic seats are up for re-election, and facing severe challenges.

As for the House, a gain of 23 seats by the opposition party in the first midterm following a presidential election is not unusual at all.  The fact that the Dems may not make even that tells us a great deal about the state of the once-mighty Democratic Party.  And their presidential bench for 2020 is Minor League.

But take nothing for granted.  Fight like you're 20 points behind.

June 6,  2018     Permalink

JUNE 5,  2018

SHORT TAKES ON THE DRIFTING WRECKAGE – AT 11:57 P.M. ET: 

PRIMARY RESULTS – Results are still coming in, especially from California, but we can safely predict that Gavin Newsom will be the Dem nominee for governor.  In California's "jungle primary" system, the top two vote getters face each other in November, even if they're from the same party.  But John Cox, a Republican, easily won the second slot, so Californians will actually have a real two-party election.  This could be exciting.  Cox has surged following President Trump's endorsement.  There's much discontent in the sunshine state.  Even though California has been deep blue in recent years, an upset is possible.

CALIFORNIA U.S. SENATE – This one has been watched closely.  There was a primary on the Dem side, featuring ancient incumbent Dianne Feinstein, seen as a centrist liberal, challenged by leftist firebrand Kevin de León, who represents the burgeoning radical wing of the party.  The Democratic Party is now so far left that its state convention refused to endorse Feinstein for re-election.  However, it appears that she's swamping de León, and that the threat from the left was exaggerated.  I mean, how many Marxists are there on the beach?

MAJOR DIPLOMATIC NEWS – FROM THE NEW YORK POST:   NBA star turned Kim Jong Un soulmate Dennis Rodman will be in Singapore during President Trump’s summit with the North Korean dictator next week, The Post has learned.  “No matter what you might think about his presence, one thing’s for sure, the ratings will be huge,” a source said. “A lot of times in situations that involve complex diplomacy, countries like to identify ambassadors of goodwill and whether you agree with it or not Dennis Rodman fits the bill.”  The zany, 6-foot-7 ex-basketballer — who has struck up an unlikely bromance with the pint-sized, 5-foot-7 Kim, and has visited the rogue regime five times in the past — took some of the credit for getting the two leaders together.  In an April interview with TMZ, Rodman said that Kim didn’t understand the president until he gave the North Korean strongman a copy of Trump’s ghost-written book, “The Art of the Deal,” for his birthday in 2017.  Whatever works.

June 5, 2018       Permalink

THE END OF CIVILIZATION? – AT 11:29 P.M. ET:  It is, isn't it?  I mean, this is the day the Miss America pageant abolished the swimsuit competition, and also the evening gown segment.  And, oh, it won't be known as a pageant any longer.  Now it's a competition.

And the young women will talk a great deal about their opinions.  I look forward to hearing Miss Nevada discuss the impact of tax reduction on economic growth.  And I hear Miss Indiana is a killer on regime change in Iran. 

I happened to go into Manhattan today for a meeting, and I could overhear parts of many conversations on the commuter train.  No one was talking about Miss America.  I'm not sure anyone ever will.  Who really cares?  And I think civilization will survive.

What annoys me is the politicization of even an old tradition like Miss America.  If someone wants to hold a beauty contest, and women want to compete, let them.  If men want to hold a bodybuilding contest, let them. 

The main honcho at the Miss America organization is Gretchen Carlson, who was once Miss America herself.  She became, as you know, a Fox News broadcaster until she successfully sued Fox for sexual harassment.  I have no idea whether that experience influenced her decision about swimsuits.

I think today's changes will kill off Miss America.   Let's be blunt.  Who would want to watch?  It had been off network television for a number of years because of lack of interest.  ABC brought it back.  ABC now has a headache.

June 5, 2018       Permalink

AND IN THE REAL WORLD – AT 10:15 A.M. ET:   When we focus on the great game of American politics, we tend to take our eyes off the world of danger that awaits us.  From Fox: 

Iran’s regime has not stopped its drive to secure technology and scientific knowledge to produce weapons of mass destruction, the intelligence agency of the German state of Baden-Württemberg disclosed in a report last week.

“Iran continued to undertake, as did Pakistan and Syria, efforts to obtain goods and know-how to be used for the development of weapons of mass destruction and to optimize corresponding missile delivery systems,” said the intelligence document, reviewed by FoxNews.com.

The intelligence agency — the State Office for the Protection of the Constitution — monitors threats to Germany’s democratic, constitutional order and is the equivalent of the FBI, operating at the state level. The counterespionage officials wrote that Iran’s illicit activities in Germany are concentrated in the classic sectors for espionage: politics, the economy, science, the military and the armaments industry.

“The observation and combating of proliferation efforts of ... Iran was also an important task of counterintelligence" in 2017 in Baden-Württemberg, said the report.

Scores of specialized technology and engineering companies are located in the southwestern state.

FoxNews.com reported in February that Iranian businessmen purchased material from the Krempel firm in Baden-Württemberg that later turned up in chemical rockets used to gas Syrian civilians in January and February.

COMMENT:  Leave it to the modern, multicultural Europeans to sell to the Iranians the technology that will later be used against Europe itself.  It reminds me of how we, in America, sold scrap iron to Japan just before the outbreak of World War II.  It came back to us as bullets and shells.

It also reminds us of Churchill's warning against those who will feed the alligator, in the hope that they'll be eaten last.

President Trump, unlike the last president, takes the threat seriously.  His great task in dealing with Iran will be in trying to convince the Europeans, who are doing great business in Tehran, to go along with his efforts.  I can only be marginally hopeful.  Europe is Europe, and too many Europeans would rather see their civilization die than miss the next contract.

June 5, 2018        Permalink

VOTING TODAY – AT 9:51 A.M. ET:  Today is a major primary day, and we'll be watching the returns come in tonight.  From Fox: 

NEWPORT BEACH, Calif. –  The Democratic Party’s ambitious midterm plan to regain control of the House of Representatives faces its biggest test yet in Tuesday’s California primaries – where candidates are tripping over each other for the chance to flip Republican-held districts.

The big question facing the party, however, is whether their candidates’ enthusiasm could backfire. So many Democratic contenders have jumped into key races – largely running on an anti-Trump platform – that the overload threatens to split the vote and boost Republicans. 

But the state nevertheless offers Democrats a wealth of opportunities to swipe seats. California's House races, meanwhile, are just a fraction of the action taking place on Tuesday, the biggest primary day so far this cycle. With eight states voting, an array of contests will reveal how each party is trending as the midterms near: 

CALIFORNIA GOVERNOR
California’s “jungle primary” is set up to advance the top-two finishers to the general election regardless of party. Lt. Gov. Gavin Newsom, a liberal Democrat, is the clear front-runner in the gubernatorial race, according to recent polls. But the fight for the second spot on the ballot is being fought among a handful of hopefuls – notably former Democratic Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa and Republican businessman John Cox, who appears to be surging after an endorsement from President Trump.

MONTANA SENATE
Republican candidates are lining up to challenge Sen. Jon Tester, D-Mont., who represents a state President Trump easily won in 2016. Among the GOP challengers in Tuesday’s primary: state auditor Matt Rosendale, Judge Russ Fagg, state Sen. Albert Olszewski and combat veteran Troy Downing. Fox News’ Power Rankings rate the Montana race as one of eight Senate toss-ups this year.

CALIFORNIA SENATE
Longtime incumbent Sen. Dianne Feinstein, D-Calif., remains the front-runner in the state’s Senate race despite her failure to secure the California Democratic Party’s endorsement in February. The fight for the second spot on the ballot is between the more liberal Democratic state Sen. Kevin de Leon and Republican James P. Bradley, among others.

COMMENT:  The man to watch is John Cox, in California.  If he cannot get into the number two position on the ballot, California – the state of Ronald Reagan –  will not have a Republican candidate for governor in November.  If he can, you just never know how far he can go, in a state where small revolutions are bubbling up all over.

June 5,  2018     Permalink